New study introduces an innovative measure of public attention based on reports of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP), demonstrating a surprising link between these sightings and economic conditions at multiple levels across the United States. This unconventional approach shows that UAP sightings, correlated with traditional attention metrics, offer a unique lens to analyze public focus, which fluctuates with economic cycles. The findings are significant because they reveal a new way to study macroeconomic behavior and inform policy, particularly in managing regional economic responses and addressing variations in public attention during periods of economic uncertainty.
A new study by Dr. Ohad Raveh from Hebrew University and Dr. Nathan Goldstein from Bar Ilan University, published in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, unveils a novel approach to measuring public attention using reports of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP). The research bridges the gap between unconventional indicators and macroeconomic analysis, revealing surprising links between UAP sightings and economic conditions at multiple geographical levels in the United States.
The study highlights that UAP reports, often dismissed as a niche phenomenon, serve as a robust proxy for public attention. By analyzing daily-level data from NUFORC (National UFO Reporting Center), the researchers show that UAP sightings are more frequent in wealthier regions but exhibit counter-cyclical patterns within those regions over time. These findings suggest that shifts in attention to extraordinary phenomena may reflect broader fluctuations in public focus.
Key Findings:
Macroeconomic Correlation: UAP sightings are positively correlated with economic conditions across regions but display counter-cyclical patterns within regions over time.
Causal Evidence: A quasi-experimental design leveraging variations in COVID-19 lockdown restrictions demonstrates a causal link between restricted mobility and increased UAP reports, further establishing the measure as an indicator of public attention.
Policy Implications: Regions with higher UAP sighting levels show muted responses to monetary policy shocks, suggesting that attention variations can significantly influence economic outcomes.
The researchers compared UAP sightings to conventional attention metrics, finding strong correlations. This innovative measure offers unique advantages, including the ability to analyze attention at different geographical and temporal scales.
Implications for Policy and Research:
Goldstein and Raveh’s findings underscore the central role of public attention in economic dynamics. Their work not only enhances the toolkit for macroeconomic analysis but also provides policymakers with insights into managing public attention to mitigate economic shocks.
The study invites further exploration into how unconventional forms of attention, like UAP sightings, intersect with economic behaviors. “We hope this work inspires future research to deepen our understanding of the connection between public attention and macroeconomic outcomes,” the authors state.
About the Study: The research uses comprehensive UAP sighting data from NUFORC, spanning over two decades, to construct a daily-level panel of reports across U.S. counties. The analysis integrates economic, social, and environmental factors to ensure robust conclusions.
This pioneering work highlights the value of thinking beyond traditional metrics, shedding light on the role of seemingly unrelated phenomena in understanding economic patterns.
The research, titled “Looking up the sky: unidentified aerial phenomena and macroeconomic attention,” is published in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications and can be found at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-024-04182-z#Sec19
DOI https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-04182-z
Researchers:
Nathan Goldstein1, Ohad Raveh2
Institutions:
1. Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel
2. Department of Environmental Economics and Management, and the Center for Agricultural Economic Research, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem is Israel’s premier academic and research institution. With over 23,000 students from 90 countries, it is a hub for advancing scientific knowledge and holds a significant role in Israel’s civilian scientific research output, accounting for nearly 40% of it and has registered over 11,000 patents. The university’s faculty and alumni have earned eight Nobel Prizes, two Turing Awards a Fields Medal, underscoring their contributions to ground-breaking discoveries. In the global arena, the Hebrew University ranks 81st according to the Shanghai Ranking. To learn more about the university’s academic programs, research initiatives, and achievements, visit the official website at http://new.huji.ac.il/en